Well: Straining to Hear and Fend Off Dementia

At a party the other night, a fund-raiser for a literary magazine, I found myself in conversation with a well-known author whose work I greatly admire. I use the term “conversation” loosely. I couldn’t hear a word he said. But worse, the effort I was making to hear was using up so much brain power that I completely forgot the titles of his books.

A senior moment? Maybe. (I’m 65.) But for me, it’s complicated by the fact that I have severe hearing loss, only somewhat eased by a hearing aid and cochlear implant.

Dr. Frank Lin, an otolaryngologist and epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, describes this phenomenon as “cognitive load.” Cognitive overload is the way it feels. Essentially, the brain is so preoccupied with translating the sounds into words that it seems to have no processing power left to search through the storerooms of memory for a response.


Katherine Bouton speaks about her own experience with hearing loss.


A transcript of this interview can be found here.


Over the past few years, Dr. Lin has delivered unwelcome news to those of us with hearing loss. His work looks “at the interface of hearing loss, gerontology and public health,” as he writes on his Web site. The most significant issue is the relation between hearing loss and dementia.

In a 2011 paper in The Archives of Neurology, Dr. Lin and colleagues found a strong association between the two. The researchers looked at 639 subjects, ranging in age at the beginning of the study from 36 to 90 (with the majority between 60 and 80). The subjects were part of the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. None had cognitive impairment at the beginning of the study, which followed subjects for 18 years; some had hearing loss.

“Compared to individuals with normal hearing, those individuals with a mild, moderate, and severe hearing loss, respectively, had a 2-, 3- and 5-fold increased risk of developing dementia over the course of the study,” Dr. Lin wrote in an e-mail summarizing the results. The worse the hearing loss, the greater the risk of developing dementia. The correlation remained true even when age, diabetes and hypertension — other conditions associated with dementia — were ruled out.

In an interview, Dr. Lin discussed some possible explanations for the association. The first is social isolation, which may come with hearing loss, a known risk factor for dementia. Another possibility is cognitive load, and a third is some pathological process that causes both hearing loss and dementia.

In a study last month, Dr. Lin and colleagues looked at 1,984 older adults beginning in 1997-8, again using a well-established database. Their findings reinforced those of the 2011 study, but also found that those with hearing loss had a “30 to 40 percent faster rate of loss of thinking and memory abilities” over a six-year period compared with people with normal hearing. Again, the worse the hearing loss, the worse the rate of cognitive decline.

Both studies also found, somewhat surprisingly, that hearing aids were “not significantly associated with lower risk” for cognitive impairment. But self-reporting of hearing-aid use is unreliable, and Dr. Lin’s next study will focus specifically on the way hearing aids are used: for how long, how frequently, how well they have been fitted, what kind of counseling the user received, what other technologies they used to supplement hearing-aid use.

What about the notion of a common pathological process? In a recent paper in the journal Neurology, John Gallacher and colleagues at Cardiff University suggested the possibility of a genetic or environmental factor that could be causing both hearing loss and dementia — and perhaps not in that order. In a phenomenon called reverse causation, a degenerative pathology that leads to early dementia might prove to be a cause of hearing loss.

The work of John T. Cacioppo, director of the Social Neuroscience Laboratory at the University of Chicago, also offers a clue to a pathological link. His multidisciplinary studies on isolation have shown that perceived isolation, or loneliness, is “a more important predictor of a variety of adverse health outcomes than is objective social isolation.” Those with hearing loss, who may sit through a dinner party and not hear a word, frequently experience perceived isolation.

Other research, including the Framingham Heart Study, has found an association between hearing loss and another unexpected condition: cardiovascular disease. Again, the evidence suggests a common pathological cause. Dr. David R. Friedland, a professor of otolaryngology at the Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, hypothesized in a 2009 paper delivered at a conference that low-frequency loss could be an early indication that a patient has vascular problems: the inner ear is “so sensitive to blood flow” that any vascular abnormalities “could be noted earlier here than in other parts of the body.”

A common pathological cause might help explain why hearing aids do not seem to reduce the risk of dementia. But those of us with hearing loss hope that is not the case; common sense suggests that if you don’t have to work so hard to hear, you have greater cognitive power to listen and understand — and remember. And the sense of perceived isolation, another risk for dementia, is reduced.

A critical factor may be the way hearing aids are used. A user must practice to maximize their effectiveness and they may need reprogramming by an audiologist. Additional assistive technologies like looping and FM systems may also be required. And people with progressive hearing loss may need new aids every few years.

Increasingly, people buy hearing aids online or from big-box stores like Costco, making it hard for the user to follow up. In the first year I had hearing aids, I saw my audiologist initially every two weeks for reprocessing and then every three months.

In one study, Dr. Lin and his colleague Wade Chien found that only one in seven adults who could benefit from hearing aids used them. One deterrent is cost ($2,000 to $6,000 per ear), seldom covered by insurance. Another is the stigma of old age.

Hearing loss is a natural part of aging. But for most people with hearing loss, according to the National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders, the condition begins long before they get old. Almost two-thirds of men with hearing loss began to lose their hearing before age 44. My hearing loss began when I was 30.

Forty-eight million Americans suffer from some degree of hearing loss. If it can be proved in a clinical trial that hearing aids help delay or offset dementia, the benefits would be immeasurable.

“Could we do something to reduce cognitive decline and delay the onset of dementia?” he asked. “It’s hugely important, because by 2050, 1 in 30 Americans will have dementia.

“If we could delay the onset by even one year, the prevalence of dementia drops by 15 percent down the road. You’re talking about billions of dollars in health care savings.”

Should studies establish definitively that correcting hearing loss decreases the potential for early-onset dementia, we might finally overcome the stigma of hearing loss. Get your hearing tested, get it corrected, and enjoy a longer cognitively active life. Establishing the dangers of uncorrected hearing might even convince private insurers and Medicare that covering the cost of hearing aids is a small price to pay to offset the cost of dementia.



Katherine Bouton is the author of the new book, “Shouting Won’t Help: Why I — and 50 Million Other Americans — Can’t Hear You,” from which this essay is adapted.


This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 12, 2013

An earlier version of this article misstated the location of the Medical College of Wisconsin. It is in Milwaukee, not Madison.

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DealBook: Big Investors Strengthen Opposition to Dell's Sale

12:29 p.m. | Updated

One of the country’s biggest mutual fund managers signaled its opposition to Dell‘s proposed $24.4 billion sale on Tuesday, as another investor disclosed a major step in a campaign to fight the deal.

T. Rowe Price said in a statement that it was opposed to the $13.65-a-share takeover bid being offered by the company’s founder, Michael S. Dell, and the investment firm Silver Lake. With a stake of about 4.4 percent, T. Rowe Price is Dell’s third-biggest shareholder.

The second-biggest shareholder, Southeastern Asset Management, meanwhile disclosed in a regulatory filing that it had retained D.F. King, a big proxy solicitation firm, as an adviser. It also confirmed that it held about 8.44 percent of Dell’s shares, trailing only Mr. Dell.

Proxy solicitors like D.F. King play important roles in fights over shareholder votes. They canvass a company’s investor base, providing their clients with estimates of how shareholders are leaning and strategies for winning over allies.

Southeastern has also hired Dennis J. Block of Greenberg Traurig, an experienced mergers and acquisitions lawyer, according to a person briefed on the matter.

The emergence of T. Rowe Price as an opponent of the deal is the latest sign of discontent with the management buyout bid. While Mr. Dell controls about 16 percent of the company’s stock, his offer for the computer maker requires the approval of a majority of independent shareholders.

In a statement, T. Rowe Price’s chairman and chief investment officer, Brian C. Rogers, said, “We believe the proposed buyout does not reflect the value of Dell, and we do not intend to support the offer as put forward.”

A spokesman for Dell repeated a statement made on Friday, saying that a special committee of the board had considered a number of strategic alternatives. “Based on that work, the board concluded that the proposed all-cash transaction is in the best interests of stockholders,” according to the statement.

Silver Lake declined to comment. 

Shares of Dell closed on Monday above the buyout price for the first time since the offer was announced last week, signaling expectations that the bid might be increased.

In a company release on Friday, Southeastern said it planned to consider all of its options to fight the deal, including a proxy fight, a lawsuit and calling on a Delaware court to determine the fair value of Dell shares.

The high price the firm paid for its holding is probably driving its opposition. Analysts have estimated that Southeastern paid more than $20 a share on average, meaning it would lose over $800 million if the current deal were completed.

A person close to the firm disputed that estimate, suggesting that Southeastern’s cost basis was closer to $16.90 a share.

Southeastern and its chief executive, O. Mason Hawkins, have been unafraid to challenge companies when their stock prices fall. The firm was a major force for change at the oil and natural gas driller Chesapeake Energy last year, eventually winning representation on its board.

With Dell, there is a long road ahead. The vote for shareholders to approve the buyout offer is at least several months away.

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NH bills: Bosses can’t seek social media passwords






CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — New Hampshire is considering joining a handful of states that bar employers from asking job applicants and employees for their social media user names and passwords.


The House’s labor committee is holding a hearing on two similar bills Tuesday that would prohibit an employer from requiring the disclosure. Maryland, California, Delaware, Michigan, New Jersey and Illinois have similar laws and two dozen besides New Hampshire are considering legislation, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.






In their effort to vet job applicants, some companies and government agencies have started asking for passwords to log into a prospective employee’s accounts on social media sites, such as Facebook and Twitter. Critics call it an invasion of privacy akin to handing over the keys to the person’s house.


State Sen. Donna Soucy, a co-sponsor on both New Hampshire bills, said Monday that employers can gain access to information about an employee or job applicant through social media accounts like Facebook that they otherwise could not legally obtain. She said people post personal information about themselves on Facebook or others post on the person’s page that should be protected.


She said she has not heard of any New Hampshire employers demanding the information.


“I think the issue is something we need to consider a lot more seriously than we used to” with the growth of social media accounts, she said. “At the very least, I would hope we would have a study.”


Soucy, D-Manchester, said employers can use information on social media accounts to discriminate. For example, the applicant might be obese but the person’s weight would not be required on the application. The employer might not know until seeing a picture on Facebook, she said.


“Would they interview them if they saw their picture on Facebook?” she said.


Soucy said other people can post information on the person’s page that the person might not delete before a prospective employer saw it.


“As responsible as somebody might trying to be, it is still a reflection on them,” she said.


Allowing employers access to social media accounts also gives them access to others linked to the account at the infringement on their privacy, she said.


Social Media News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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The Lede: Latest Updates on the Pope’s Resignation

The Lede is providing updates on Pope Benedict XVI’s announcement on Monday that he intends to resign on Feb. 28, less than eight years after he took office, the first pope to do so in six centuries. (Turn off auto-refresh to watch videos.)
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Eagles, QB Vick agree to restructured deal


PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Quarterback Michael Vick, who was slated to earn $16 million next season, has agreed to a restructured deal with the Philadelphia Eagles.


Vick, who was injured and inconsistent last season, eventually giving way to rookie Nick Foles, now has a three-year contract, and will compete with Foles over the next nine months to see who runs new coach Chip Kelly's offense this season.


Vick, who returned to start the season finale vs. the New York Giants in December because Foles was injured, finished the season with 2,362 yards passing, 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Eagles finished 4-12 and in last place in the NFC East.


Andy Reid was fired as coach the day after the season ended, and Kelly was hired last month. Vick, who will be 33 when next season begins, is still elusive when healthy, and seems equipped to run Kelly's aggressive, up-tempo offense that he is bringing to the Eagles from Oregon.


"He wanted to be here," Kelly said Monday in his first meeting with the media following his opening press conference on Jan. 17. "I had never met him before. The one thing that attracted me to him, is Michael is a competitor. Nick is, too. You want guys who want to compete."


Vick was signed by Philadelphia in 2009, and became the starter in 2010. He led the Eagles that season to an NFC East title, and a memorable 38-31 December win over the Giants in which he rallied the team from a 21-point deficit.


There are questions, of course, about his durability and his age, as he now seems far removed from that resurgent 2010 season. He finished that year with 3,018 yards passing, 676 yards rushing and 30 total touchdowns.


"He's younger than (Dallas quarterback) Tony Romo, and he's right about the same age as (Giants quarterback) Eli Manning," Kelly said. "The only reason I say that is because I told Michael that this morning, and he didn't know."


Vick only played in 10 games last season, and in the finale vs. New York, he had a quarterback rating of just 68.4 en route to a 42-7 loss.


"I looked at the films, and studied the tape. When you look at Michael, it's his toughness. That cannot be overrated at all," Kelly said. "We looked at his skillset. He still has that skillset. He can still throw the football.


"He's got an unbelievable release, and it's our job as coaches to make sure he can get the ball out quickly."


All told, Vick has started 35 games for Philadelphia over the last three seasons. Foles has started six. The Eagles scored just 280 points last season as they endured an eight- and a three-game losing streak. Only Arizona (250) scored fewer in the NFC.


When asked which quarterback would work with the first-team offense in training camp, Kelly smiled and quickly showed he's going to be able to handle the Philadelphia media just fine.


"We'll go alphabetical," he said with a grin. "First name? Last name? We'll flip a coin."


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Well: Price for a New Hip? Good Luck Getting a Reliable Estimate

Jaime Rosenthal, a senior at Washington University in St. Louis, called more than 100 hospitals in every state last summer, seeking prices for a hip replacement for a 62-year-old grandmother who was uninsured but had the means to pay herself.

The quotes she received might surprise even hardened health care economists: only about half of the hospitals, including top-ranked orthopedic centers and community hospitals, could provide any sort of price estimate, despite repeated calls. Those that could gave quotes that varied by a factor of more than 10, from $11,100 to $125,798.

Ms. Rosenthal’s grandmother was fictitious, created for a summer research project on health care costs. But the findings, which form the basis of a paper released on Monday by JAMA Internal Medicine, are likely to fan the debate on the unsustainable growth of American health care costs and an opaque medical system in which prices are often hidden from consumers.

“Transparency is all the rage these days in government and business, but there has been little push for pricing transparency in health care, and there’s virtually no information,” said Dr. Peter Cram, an associate professor of internal medicine at the University of Iowa, who wrote the paper with Ms. Rosenthal. He added: “I can get the price for a car, for a can of oil, for a gallon of milk. But health care? That’s not so easy.”

President Obama’s Affordable Care Act focused primarily on providing insurance to Americans who did not have it. But the high price of care remains an elephant in the room. Although many experts have said that Americans must become more discerning consumers to help rein in costs, the study illustrates how hard that can be.

“We’ve been trying to help patients get good value, but it is really hard to get price commitments from hospitals — we see this all the time,” said Jeff Rice, the chief executive of Healthcare Blue Book, a company that collects data on medical procedures, doctors visits and tests. “And even if they say $20,000, it often turns out $40,000 or 60,000.”

There are many caveats to the study. Most patients — or insurers — never pay the full sticker price of surgery, because insurance companies bargain with hospitals and doctors for discounted rates. When Ms. Rosenthal balked at initial high estimates, some hospitals produced lower rates for a person without insurance.

But in other ways the telephone quotations underestimated prices, because they did not include the fees for outpatient rehabilitation, for example.

In an accompanying commentary, Andrew Steinmetz and Ezekiel J. Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania acknowledged that there was “no justification” for the inability to provide estimates or for the wide range of prices. But they said that more rigorous data on quality — like infection rates and unexpected deaths — were required to know when high prices were worth it.

“Without quality data to accompany price data, physicians, consumers and other health care decision makers have no idea if a lower price represents shoddy quality of if it constitutes good value,” they wrote.

But, broadly, researchers emphasized that studies had found little consistent correlation between higher prices and better quality in American health care. Dr. Cram said there was no data that “Mercedes” hip implants were better than cheaper options, for example.

Jamie Court, the president of the California-based Consumer Watchdog, said: “If one hospital can put in a hip for $12,000, then every hospital should be able to do it. When there’s 100 percent variation in sticker price, then there is no real price. It’s about profit.”

Dr. Cram said the study did contain some good news: some of the country’s top-ranked hospitals came up with “bargain basement prices” in response to repeated calls. “If you’re a good consumer and shop around, you can get a good price — you don’t have to pay $120,000 for a Honda,” he said.

But that shopping can be arduous in a market not set up to respond to consumers. To get a total price, Ms. Rosenthal often had to call the hospital to get its estimate for on-site care, and a separate quote from doctors. And many were simply perplexed when she asked for a price upfront, Ms. Rosenthal said, adding, “The people who answered didn’t know what to do with the question.”

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How to Cope With Time Zone Changes and Jet Lag When Flying


Ilona De March, who lives in Amsterdam and travels frequently to Atlanta, has a strict rule when she flies across time zones: no alcohol.


A business traveler for 20 years, Ms. De March, a president at BCD Travel, knows the intricacies of long-haul flying — what works and what doesn’t.


When she arrives, she has another guideline. “I don’t lie down because then I would fall asleep,” she said. “I get busy working; I contact people in Atlanta. Then I am able to go to sleep at the right time.” What is the right time?


For her, the right time is nighttime in Atlanta. “I am trying to listen to my own body,” said Ms. De March, who oversees BCD Travel’s operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.


She still relishes the lifestyle. “I still haven’t lost the interest,” she said, though she added that “the travel isn’t as glamorous as it used to be, with tighter security.”


Yet, according to circadian rhythm experts, the lifestyle can take a toll on the mind and body. Just how much it affects an individual varies.


Research from June 2012 by AirPlus International, a global corporate card provider, in partnership with Business Travel Market, showed that executives who travel frequently could suffer from “decreases in mental capacity, increased stress levels and decreased productivity.”


The study, which used a tiny device called the Bodyguard to monitor heart rate variations, compared travelers with nontravelers during a 72-hour period.


The business travelers showed reduced mental capacity, diminished communication skills, decreased ability to concentrate and engage others, reduced tolerance levels and an increased risk of ill health. It corroborated earlier research by Mark Rosekind, the former director of NASA’s fatigue countermeasures program who is now a member of the National Transportation Safety Board. The average executive’s productivity and performance while traveling drops up to 20 percent, largely because of insufficient sleep, according to Dr. Rosekind’s research.


How well individuals cope with crossing time zones varies, and everyone must learn what works. “There are some people who can do it,” said Simon Shepard, a physical therapist in London for Optima-life, a British health and performance organization. He worked on the AirPlus study. “There are some people who are adaptable and can cope very well,” he said. But some people are less aware of travel’s effects, and believe they are sleeping better than they are. Mr. Shepard says he encourages frequent travelers to fly in first class or business class, avoid alcohol, move around while in flight, arrange for an early hotel check-in, have a car waiting when they arrive and stay hydrated before, during and after the flight.


David F. Dinges, a performance expert who has worked with NASA astronauts and has conducted research in the area of sleep deprivation and time zones, agreed that everyone dealt with travel across time zones differently. “Some tolerate it better than others. All get in deficit. There are large individual differences.”


Generally, he said, there are three types of people when it comes to crossing time zones. One, which he calls Type 3, who are very disrupted, “really affected”; Type 2, who are somewhat affected; and Type 1, who seem to take longer before they show the effects of frequent travel across time zones. “They cope pretty well,” said Dr. Dinges, who is chief of the division of sleep and chronobiology at the Perelman School of Medicine at University of Pennsylvania.


Dr. Dinges, who travels frequently from Philadelphia to Moscow and Philadelphia to Paris, recounted instances when he and other scientists had arrived in Moscow, Paris, Singapore or Tokyo, and, while waiting in the lobby for a limousine to take them to a meeting, boasted of how well they did with the time zone difference and lack of sleep. The next thing he heard, Dr. Dinges said, was one scientist asking: “Where’s my computer?” Then another: “Where’s my passport?” Both headed back to their hotel rooms to get the missing items.


“What people say has nothing to do with reality,” Dr. Dinges said. “You can have loss of short-term memory, which is especially likely to happen in a novel environment.”


One of the benefits of proper sleep is that it ensures that the brain works efficiently.


Sleep deprivation, Dr. Dinges said, is associated with obesity, diabetes, stroke and heart attack, which could be enough to make frequent travelers question their lifestyle, and some do, he said. Those who have the most difficulty are the ones who quit the lifestyle, if they can. “Eat fish, salad, fruit, juices for vitamins and energy,” said Chris Crowley, senior vice president for global client management for Europe, the Middle East and Africa for BCD Travel. “The big lesson is not to drink alcohol. I’ve been traveling like this for 20 years. I used to accept the first glass of Champagne offered. I would be sluggish and struggling when I arrived. You have to approach the long-haul travel like you’re at work, as a kind of mission. Be as fit as you possibly can be, as well as you possibly can be.”


Dr. Dinges, 63, who has been traveling to far-flung places for 35 to 40 years, said he had developed routines particular to his needs. He does not sleep on planes, drinks no alcohol, avoids rich foods and does not put his airplane seat back, choosing to work instead. “Know your strengths and weaknesses, what happens to you, what kind of mistakes you’re likely to make.” In addition, he said, he tries to arrive at his destination the day before his business meetings.


Over-the-counter sleep medication usually remains in the body for less time than prescription drugs, he said. “Know what drug at which dose is right for you. Don’t guess at it, and don’t mix sleep medication with alcohol.”


Those who travel across time zones recommend a nap to keep going. “Grab sleep whenever you can,” said Mr. Crowley, who travels 220 to 230 days a year. “Even if you’re not tired, you’ll sleep an hour.”


One caveat: Set two or three alarms to make sure you are awake in time for the business meeting or other work commitment.


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Tech wizards honored by Oscars organizers






BEVERLY HILLS, California (Reuters) – Some of the most ingenious behind-the-scenes innovators, whose breakthroughs in computer technology and other fields were key to the making of movies such as “Shrek” and “Avatar,” were awarded at an early Oscar organizers’ ceremony in Los Angeles on Saturday night.


From the team who developed a system to bring to life computerized digital stunt doubles for fantastic creatures in movies such as “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” to the man who simply developed one of the most versatile lighting delivery systems in film production, the Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards showcased emotional speeches and lifetimes of work for those whose lives are spent behind the camera.






The Beverly Hills ceremony honored 25 individuals with nine awards. Unlike the main Oscars ceremony, which will be held on Sunday, February 24 and will only recognize movie achievements from 2012, the Scientific and Technical Awards honored those with a proven record of achievement in the process of making feature films.


The ceremony was hosted by actors Chris Pine and Zoe Saldana, who respectively played Captain James T. Kirk and Uhura in “Star Trek” in 2009 and who will reprise those roles in this May’s sequel. Saldana payed tribute to the night’s honorees, saying they made it possible for life in front of the camera.


Richard Mall received perhaps the greatest applause of the night, for his invention of the Matthews Max Menace Arm, a portable device which allows studio lights to be moved and positioned all over a set, often where normal lighting cannot be used because of on-site restrictions of other difficult conditions.


“I am a little humbled to be up here with all this technology, because basically I built something in my garage,” Mall said to applause and cheers. He thanked his wife for all the strange noises that had come out of that garage. His invention has been sold to over 40 countries and used in more than 300 films.


The evening was also devoted to people who had invented systems such as “Tissue: A Physically-Based Character Simulation Framework,” which has made huge advances in bringing to life computer-generated characters such as Gollum in “The Hobbit“. An Academy Plaque for Scientific and Engineering went to Simon Clutterbuck, James Jacobs and Dr. Richard Dorling for this technique.


The team of Daniel Wexler, Lawrence Kesteloot and Drew Olbrich that created the Light system for computer graphics at PDI/DreamWorks was awarded for technical achievement. Their work, which combines light, color and rendering in one, was used in “Shrek,” “Madagascar” and other animated DreamWorks pictures.


(Editing by Sandra Maler)


Tech News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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IHT Rendezvous: Sharper Tongues in China's Year of the Snake?

BEIJING — The Snake is determined and smart, according to traditional Chinese beliefs. Today is New Year’s Day in China, the first day in the Year of the Snake, and a good day to ask: Will Xi Jinping, a “snake” set to become president in March (Mr. Xi was born in a Year of the Snake, in 1953) bring change to China?

Whether or not one believes in feng shui — the thought system based on geomancy, astronomy and folk wisdom of which the 12-yearly animal cycle is part — many here swear by it, and that makes the confluence of the man and the year important.

As the rational economist He Fan said last year, at the beginning of the Year of the Dragon: Feng shui may not be rational, but it is “symbolic,” “and that’s important, because that’s how China’s political culture works.”

So as ordinary people across the nation settle into their hard-earned, weeklong holiday amid the thunder of festival firecrackers, some are wondering whether recent calls by Mr. Xi to attack corruption and “criticize sharply” the ruling Communist Party will bring unwelcome shocks to members of the privileged classes in China, including the party, the government and state-run companies, widely seen as too powerful and too corrupt.

Skepticism about real change is rife, for sure, but signs say maybe, at least to some degree. And if that sounds woolly, it is because making predictions in China is notoriously difficult. Yet it is also important as the nation grows in international stature: As Bloomberg News notes, 2012 may have marked the year when China became the world’s largest trading nation. China was last the world’s biggest economy during the Qing dynasty, Bloomberg noted (though back then it didn’t focus on trade, Bloomberg wrote).

Some say the change has already begun, amid a deepening campaign against corruption announced by Mr. Xi after he was appointed general secretary of the party in November. The state’s anti-corruption warnings are being taken more seriously now than at any time in the past decade because they come from Mr. Xi, who is regarded as potentially a strong leader fast establishing his dominance, already the most eminent member of the seven-man Standing Committee of the Politburo, China’s inner circle of power.

One sign: Traditionally lavish end-of-the-year parties thrown by powerful state-owned companies, and thus paid for from the public purse, have been canceled in large numbers, causing great satisfaction among ordinary people as high-end restaurants in Beijing are suddenly available for traditional New Year family dinners. In previous years, getting a booking was impossible. This year, it’s not.

Another sign: a recent call by Mr. Xi for “sharp criticism” of the Communist Party.

“Chinese leader Xi Jinping has urged the Communist Party of China (CPC) to be more tolerant of criticism and receptive to the views of non-communists,” Xinhua, the state-run news agency, reported last week.

“The CPC should be able to put up with sharp criticism, correct mistakes if it has committed them and avoid them if it has not,” Xinhua quoted Mr. Xi as saying, adding that nonparty members should “have the courage to tell the truth, speak words jarring on the ear, and truthfully reflect public aspirations.”

The call has been — what else? — sharply criticized, in fast and furious microblog postings showing just how deep is the well of resentment against the state’s heavy hand in some quarters.

Shortly after 9 a.m. on New Year’s Day, Ai Weiwei, the artist, snapped on his Twitter account: “First sentence of the New Year, release all political prisoners.”

The South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong newspaper, gathered more acerbic responses:

The venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee: “Will you stop silencing and shutting down microblog accounts?”

Xu Xiaonian, an economics professor: “Will you stop censoring books and media reports?”

Chen Tongkui, an academic: “Will you stop press censorship?”

Wang Xiaoyu, another academic: “Can you not delete the comments on this microblog post?”

The real estate magnate Ren Zhiqiang: “Will you stop criminalizing people’s speech and sentencing them to re-education through labor?”

Cui Weiping, an academic: “Will you put an end to police harassment” of activists and netizens?

Yet, for many ordinary Chinese, there is hope. Incomes are rising, and there is a whiff of, yes, change in the air. In a recent, colorfully presented survey by TNS, part of Kantar, an information and consulting group, 88 percent of people surveyed in China were positive about the Year of the Snake, the company said.

As Mr. He said of last year, which saw the dramatic downfall of the political scion Bo Xilai, seen by some as a contender for Mr. Xi’s position, amid a murder and corruption scandal: “Something happens in every Dragon Year, even if it’s just a turning point.” Often, the real action begins a year or two later.

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Snedeker, Hahn tied for the lead at Pebble


PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. (AP) — At least this time, Brandt Snedeker feels it's a fair fight.


He started the final round at Torrey Pines seven shots behind Tiger Woods. A week later in the Phoenix Open, he went into the final round six shots behind Phil Mickelson.


Snedeker, the hottest player in golf this year without a win to show for it, put matters into his own hands Saturday by running off four straight birdies along the prettiest part of Pebble Beach for a 4-under 68 that gave him a share of the lead with 31-year-old rookie James Hahn in the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.


"You never know what tomorrow holds, but I feel like I'm in great position, and I'm going to be surely more prepared, no matter who is around me in the last group," said Snedeker, who posted his ninth straight round in the 60s. "I'm probably going to have the most experience of anybody in those last couple groups of winning a golf tournament."


That won't make Sunday any easier.


Snedeker made a detour to the CBS Sports booth after his round, and then headed straight to the practice green. He was irritated by missing four birdie putts inside 10 feet, including on the last two holes that cost him some room for error on the final day.


Hahn birdied his last three holes for a 66 at Spyglass Hill, putting him in the final group for the first time. They were at 12-under 202, one shot ahead of Chris Kirk, who had a 64 on the super-fast greens of Monterey Peninsula.


Mickelson tumbled down the rocks and down the leaderboard on the final hole at Pebble Beach.


The defending champion hit a tee shot on the par-5 18th that ran over the cliff and down toward the beach. Mickelson went down to see if the ball could be found — and possibly played — when his right foot gave way and he handed hard on his back side, bracing for the fall with his hands.


For all the celebrity antics that are part of the show Saturday at Pebble, this is the one video that might go viral.


"I got lucky," Mickelson said. "I didn't get hurt."


Not physically, anyway. Mickelson hit his next shot into the Pacific Ocean and had to scramble for a triple bogey, leaving him 11 shots behind and ending his hopes of a record-tying fifth win at Pebble Beach.


All the attention now shifts to Snedeker, who has shot in the 60s in 15 out of his 18 rounds this year. Mickelson had a good look at Snedeker last week in Phoenix when he finally put him away with late birdies on the back nine.


"He's been playing great golf these last couple of weeks ... and it looks like this could be his week," Mickelson said. "But final round at Pebble Beach, a lot of things happen and he has to play one more good round. I know he has it in him, but he still has to go do it."


A year ago, Mickelson came from six shots off the lead to win. There were two dozen players within six shots of the lead after Saturday's round, a group that included Retief Goosen and U.S. Open champion Webb Simpson, whose 7-under 65 at Pebble was the lowest score to par all week.


Pebble Beach was simply majestic on Saturday, with a blazing sun shining across the Pacific coast and temperatures in the upper 50s.


Snedeker began his big run with a 3-wood up the hill and onto the green at the par-5 sixth for a two-putt birdie. He followed with a 10-foot birdie on the seventh, and then hit two of his best shots on two of the toughest holes at Pebble — a 7-iron over a corner of the ocean to about 5 feet below the hole on the eighth, and a baby cut with an 8-iron that plopped down 4 feet away for a birdie on the ninth.


He didn't make many putts the rest of the way, however, and had to settle for a 68.


In his last nine rounds, Snedeker's average score is 67.8. The difference has been his driving, which went from a weakness to strength late last summer when he won the Tour Championship to capture the FedEx Cup. Now he wants a trophy to back up the low scores.


"You want to win any time you have a chance because you don't know how many times you're going to get that in a year," Snedeker said. "I've had a couple chances the last couple weeks— haven't been the best chances. And this week, I have a great chance going into tomorrow. And you need to capitalize on those chances."


Snedeker missed four birdie putts inside 10 feet, including the last two holes. He badly misjudged the break on an 8-foot birdie putt on the 17th and made a weak effort from 8 feet on the 18th hole.


"The last two really upset me because I felt like I really stayed patient all day and had done a great job and hit two great shots on the last couple of holes," Snedeker said. "Those are the kind of putts you need to put some room between you and whoever else you're going to be around."


In this case, that would be Hahn, who seems to thrive in any environment.


Until now, Hahn was best known for his "Gangnam Style" celebration of his birdie on the 16th hole at the Phoenix Open. If he was secure enough to dance before the rowdiest gallery in golf, then he should be OK playing in the final group at Pebble Beach with a round that could severely change his career path.


At stake are a two-year exemption and a trip to the Masters.


"I'm not even in next week's tournament, so to me, a top-10 finish would be great," Hahn said. "So if you want to compare the Northern Trust Open to Augusta, we can. I would love to play another week out on tour, but just to learn from Brandt Snedeker, he's one of the hottest golfers on the planet right now."


Hahn isn't one of those can't-miss rookies. He's only a year older than Snedeker, and took a far different path to the big leagues. He dropped out of California, and then took time off to work at an advertising agency, earned his realtor's license and even sold shoes at Nordstrom's.


"I feel like I'm playing well just because I feel comfortable," he said. "You know, comfortable and having fun, that's when I'm playing my best golf. ... I feel like my attitude on the golf course is better than it has been in recent years, and not getting so frustrated out there, just kind of enjoying the moment. I keep saying that, but it's a blast to be inside the ropes and a member of the PGA Tour."


DIVOTS: Mike Weir, who missed every cut last year, had four birdies on his last eight holes to make his second cut this year. ... Among those missing the cut were two-time Pebble winner Dustin Johnson, Padraig Harrington and Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy, who has not broken par in his last three events, is assured of missing the Match Play Championship. ... Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who played with Tiger Woods last year, is leading the pro-am with Jordan Spieth as his partner. San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander were among those making the cut.


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